Scientists are trying to figure out a way that they can monitor earthquakes, and ultimately they would like to be able to say what hte probability is for a specific earthquake, on a particular fault in a given year. But it is hard to discover this information accurately.
One method scientists use, is to study the past history of earthquakes on a fault. By studying the past frequency of large earthquakes they can determine the future likelihood of large quakes. However, the occurence of an earthquake is not entirely random, beause as strain is released during an earthquake along on portion of the fault line, it can increase along another part.
Another method it to study how fast strain accumulates, and how much strain was released during the last earthquake, and how much time has pasted since the last earthquake. They can then use an equation to discover when a quake is coming. However, this is difficult becuase using this method requires very detailed information, and the likelihood of this information being available is very small. Finding an effective way of predicting earthquakes can ensure saftely for many more people, but we need to find an productive and efficient way.
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